You wouldn't believe how many people are Democrats and socially conservative especially in rural areas of the midwest and south. They usually vote Democratic but sometimes one or two issues push them over. Some of the people I mentioned probably wouldn't have voted for Kerry or at all but the gay marriage issue was very hot then and got them out to vote. I don't think it will be quite the same this time with the economy being such a driving factor.
People usually vote with their pocketbooks, but you can't count out religion. Here in the midwest, the evangelical churches are popping up everywhere. I've been to one and I'm sure these pastors won't think twice about using political influence. Our county is one that can go either way and always attracts tons of campaign attention during election season because the election almost always goes the way the county goes.