1) the early voting polls have historically been spot on
2) yes, Democrats vote early in greater numbers - a fact I noted in my original post, and the reason the GOP vehemently opposes early voting
3) people who have already voted are excluded frim the pool of likely voters in those states, thereby skewing the current poll numbers (a fact acknowledged by NBC/WSJ/Marist in their full release)
4) those states include FL, where voting is already underway in several counties, most notably heavily Democratic Hillsborough.
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