So Obama simply isn't up 63% as some might have taken your first post about the poll to mean. The Marist Poll has this: When early voters are taken out of the equation, Obama’s lead shrinks to 48 percent vs. Romney's 46 percent.

This is hardly a comfortable lead and certainly not anywhere near a 63% regardless of whether or not Republicans don't like early voting.
Originally Posted by Kitschy
This was my exact statement:

Keep in mind that early voting began October 2 in Ohio, and the polls exclude people who already voted (63% of whom voted for Obama)
The meaning seems quite clear to me, but I do apologize if anyone misinterpreted it.

According to NBC/WSJ/Marist, Obama is up by 1 in Florida, while Romney leads by one in Virginia. Obama leads by 6 when you include early voters, which you obviously should since those are "votes in the bank". Either way, Obama leads in OH even when you take out a strongly pro-Obama bloc of actual voters.

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac has Obama up by 5 in Virginia and 3 in Wisconsin, and Romney up by one in Colorado.

Since the relevant metric is the Electoral College map, you have to look at the battleground states. Michigan and Pennsylvania are solidly pro-Obama, and Ohio is considered a strong Obama state even now. Wisconsin has an 80% probability of going for Obama. So you have Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado and Iowa as toss-ups. Romney would have to run the table in order to have any shot, and that's assuming he doesn't have another "47%" surprise. (i.e., the fact that Bain invested in a company that destroyed embryos from fertility clinics, or demanded & received a $10 million bailout from the federal government for a failing bank Bain owned, even while giving out massive bonuses to Bain executives).

The internals of all the polls show a marked slowdown of Romney's bounce, and in some cases a slight reversal. (ETA: this trend is also evident at Intrade, where Obama's chances of winning the election have risen over a full point today to 63%.)

A lot could happen in the next 26 days, of course, and I am not taking anything for granted. Turnout will be a huge factor, and the fact that the race is so tight should ensure that people get off their butts and vote.

Last edited by yossarian; 10-11-2012 at 12:01 PM.