I don't even try to understand the conflict anymore. I tried -- really tried -- about 15 years ago. I finally gave up. It's so complex and ever-changing.
Instead I go with the opinions of smart people I trust who know way more about it than I do. A couple friends in particular who have lived and worked in the region. They do not support Israel. They think the Palestinians are being shafted. I tend to agree with them.
I will say this: I understand what you mean when you say history has shown Jews need their own state, but I don't agree. My friends would argue that's the sort of thinking that excuses a lot of wrongdoings on the part of Israel. I think they are right about that. In fact, that's really the crux of the whole matter, isn't it?
I'm at least glad we've moved on our our society from it being completely taboo to call Israel out. There was a time when you could not really openly do that for fear of being called anti-Semitic. That is starting to break down and I'm glad.