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Old 10-11-2012, 09:51 AM   #301
 
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I simply wouldn't put too much stock in an early voting exit poll. It may, or may not mean anything except that more democrats are voting early. That would simply mean that more repubs would vote late. Nothing more could be assessed.

NBC/WSJ/Marist poll: Romney gains in key swing states - First Read
Several points+
1) the early voting polls have historically been spot on

2) yes, Democrats vote early in greater numbers - a fact I noted in my original post, and the reason the GOP vehemently opposes early voting

3) people who have already voted are excluded frim the pool of likely voters in those states, thereby skewing the current poll numbers (a fact acknowledged by NBC/WSJ/Marist in their full release)

4) those states include FL, where voting is already underway in several counties, most notably heavily Democratic Hillsborough.

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Old 10-11-2012, 10:11 AM   #302
 
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So Obama simply isn't up 63% as some might have taken your first post about the poll to mean. The Marist Poll has this: When early voters are taken out of the equation, Obama’s lead shrinks to 48 percent vs. Romney's 46 percent.

This is hardly a comfortable lead and certainly not anywhere near a 63% regardless of whether or not Republicans don't like early voting.
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Old 10-11-2012, 10:44 AM   #303
 
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Originally Posted by Kitschy View Post
So Obama simply isn't up 63% as some might have taken your first post about the poll to mean. The Marist Poll has this: When early voters are taken out of the equation, Obama’s lead shrinks to 48 percent vs. Romney's 46 percent.

This is hardly a comfortable lead and certainly not anywhere near a 63% regardless of whether or not Republicans don't like early voting.
This was my exact statement:

Quote:
Keep in mind that early voting began October 2 in Ohio, and the polls exclude people who already voted (63% of whom voted for Obama)
The meaning seems quite clear to me, but I do apologize if anyone misinterpreted it.

According to NBC/WSJ/Marist, Obama is up by 1 in Florida, while Romney leads by one in Virginia. Obama leads by 6 when you include early voters, which you obviously should since those are "votes in the bank". Either way, Obama leads in OH even when you take out a strongly pro-Obama bloc of actual voters.

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac has Obama up by 5 in Virginia and 3 in Wisconsin, and Romney up by one in Colorado.

Since the relevant metric is the Electoral College map, you have to look at the battleground states. Michigan and Pennsylvania are solidly pro-Obama, and Ohio is considered a strong Obama state even now. Wisconsin has an 80% probability of going for Obama. So you have Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado and Iowa as toss-ups. Romney would have to run the table in order to have any shot, and that's assuming he doesn't have another "47%" surprise. (i.e., the fact that Bain invested in a company that destroyed embryos from fertility clinics, or demanded & received a $10 million bailout from the federal government for a failing bank Bain owned, even while giving out massive bonuses to Bain executives).

The internals of all the polls show a marked slowdown of Romney's bounce, and in some cases a slight reversal. (ETA: this trend is also evident at Intrade, where Obama's chances of winning the election have risen over a full point today to 63%.)

A lot could happen in the next 26 days, of course, and I am not taking anything for granted. Turnout will be a huge factor, and the fact that the race is so tight should ensure that people get off their butts and vote.
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Last edited by yossarian; 10-11-2012 at 11:01 AM.
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Old 10-11-2012, 11:10 AM   #304
 
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My absentee still hasn't come I'm nervous lol it probably won't come until next weekish but I check everyday, I feel like the owl was intercepted. I can still vote right? I will drive 6 hours home and vote if I have to dagnabit. I may be in Romney country where my vote means nothing but I will vote for Pete's sake
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Old 10-11-2012, 11:21 AM   #305
 
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My absentee still hasn't come I'm nervous lol it probably won't come until next weekish but I check everyday, I feel like the owl was intercepted. I can still vote right? I will drive 6 hours home and vote if I have to dagnabit. I may be in Romney country where my vote means nothing but I will vote for Pete's sake
This is my first time voting EVER in my life. I left my country when I was too young to vote (by two years I think), then I wasn't eligible here. Finally, I can vote. My ballot has not come yet. I'm nervous. Our state is all mail in voting now. I think it they mail it 20 days before the election which is right around now or next week. I don't think my owl was intercepted...yet
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Old 10-11-2012, 11:44 AM   #306
 
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Originally Posted by murrrcat View Post
My absentee still hasn't come I'm nervous lol it probably won't come until next weekish but I check everyday, I feel like the owl was intercepted. I can still vote right? I will drive 6 hours home and vote if I have to dagnabit. I may be in Romney country where my vote means nothing but I will vote for Pete's sake
This is my first time voting EVER in my life. I left my country when I was too young to vote (by two years I think), then I wasn't eligible here. Finally, I can vote. My ballot has not come yet. I'm nervous. Our state is all mail in voting now. I think it they mail it 20 days before the election which is right around now or next week. I don't think my owl was intercepted...yet
oooh okay. I'm trying to remember how long it took before, but I can't.
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Old 10-11-2012, 11:56 AM   #307
 
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Originally Posted by Kitschy View Post
So Obama simply isn't up 63% as some might have taken your first post about the poll to mean.
Huh? How would anyone have interpreted it that way? That's not remotely what yossarian said, nor was it confusingly worded.

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Old 10-11-2012, 12:09 PM   #308
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitschy View Post
So Obama simply isn't up 63% as some might have taken your first post about the poll to mean.
Huh? How would anyone have interpreted it that way? That's not remotely what yossarian said, nor was it confusingly worded.

I was wondering the same thing. That's not what she said at all, nor could it be interpreted as that.
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Old 10-11-2012, 12:29 PM   #309
 
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I think Romney is too dang power hungry.i dont care that he is rich, not relatable to me, or is a liar. All politicians are liars, all of them have more money then me, and i dont see them as really relatable. I dont trust him because he seems like he wants to be the most powerful man in the world by any means. He wants to be POTUS so bad he can taste it, and will do anything to accomplish this. i think americans should be taken aback by a man wanting so much control. This man for the next 4 years will have control over our basic human rights. He can alter things the way he sees fit. Yes, congress may be there to curtail any craziness that the POTUS could start. But congress is in Romney's corner. What ever craziness he comes up with, they will back. America's have to remember this! Congress is what has been blocking all of obama's ideas that some republicans even support (the sane republicans). they want less gov, but they want to pass laws that interfer in our personal lives. before you vote, think about who has the majority of americas interest in mind. Think about who wants to continue to allow women to control their bodies. Who wants make healthcare more accessible? Who wants change the meaning of the word rape? Who wants take away much needed funds for kids to go to college? Who wants tell two people in love they cant get married because they are the same sex?

I know the answer to these questions and I know who I'm voting for.

End of Rant!
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Old 10-11-2012, 02:31 PM   #310
 
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He wears his vanity on his sleeve. I do feel like Mitt is running just to see if he can succeed & win. It seems like he's in it for the spirit of competition. He's passionate about winning & holding the title but not running the country, making sound decisions or developing strong foreign policy.

Many people complain about Obama's policies but he did execute a great deal of his campaign promises in some form or another.

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Old 10-11-2012, 03:50 PM   #311
 
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He wears his vanity on his sleeve. I do feel like Mitt is running just to see if he can succeed & win. It seems like he's in it for the spirit of competition. He's passionate about winning & holding the title but not running the country, making sound decisions or developing strong foreign policy.

Many people complain about Obama's policies but he did execute a great deal of his campaign promises in some form or another.


Exactly. Romney just wants to win the ultimate rich-man power competition. He has no plan for our country...not that he's told us anyway. No plan at all. He seems willing just to execute the agenda of the right-wing extremists who are paying to try to put him in office. He seems to have no principles of his own. An empty suit. Why does anyone want a president like that?
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